The decision of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to impose tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico will raise gasoline prices at gas stations across the United States, according to analysts and industry traders.
The measure, designed to protect the national industry and to pressure neighboring countries on issues of immigration and drug trafficking, could have the opposite effect by driving up fuel prices.
The United States imports approximately 4 million barrels of Canadian oil per day, of which 70% is refined in the Midwest.
Meanwhile, imports of Mexican oil exceed 450,000 barrels per day, mostly destined for refineries on the Gulf Coast.
The new tariffs imposed by Trump include a 10% tax on energy products from Canada and a 25% tax on energy imports from Mexico, which will inevitably increase the production costs of finished fuels, such as gasoline.
These costs will be passed on to consumers.
Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, warned on social media that fuel prices could rise significantly if oil and refined products are not exempt from tariffs.
In statements to Reuters, De Haan stated that the impact will be greater the longer these rates remain in effect.
The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association expects the tariffs to be removed before consumers feel the impact.
Nonetheless, the director of energy at Oasis Energy, Alex Ryan, noted that his team is still awaiting responses from the refineries regarding the additional costs, although he emphasized that "whatever the cost may be, ultimately, it will end up in the lap of the consumer."
Differences between regions and effects on oil trade
Midwest refineries, which heavily rely on Canadian crude oil, may delay the impact due to their high levels of production and the recent storage of Canadian oil.
However, in the East Coast, the situation could become critical, as the region meets nearly half of its fuel demand through the Colonial pipeline, which is operating at maximum capacity.
With Canadian imports subject to a 10% tariff, the region may have to turn to European fuel, which would increase costs.
In the Gulf Coast, refineries will have an easier time finding alternative crude oil due to their access to maritime shipments.
No obstante, la estructura del comercio de petróleo en América del Norte podría sufrir trastornos significativos, ya queU.S. refineries are designed to process heavy and medium crude, typical of Canada and Mexico.
John LaForge, from Wells Fargo Investment Institute, warned that "someone is going to be hurt here," due to the interdependence between Canadian crude production and the Midwestern U.S. refineries, which rely on this source.
Oil market and the reaction of OPEC+
The announcement of tariffs has generated volatility in the crude oil market.
This Monday, Brent futures rose by 1.03%, reaching $76.45 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed by 1.88%, reaching $73.89.
However, gains have been limited by concerns that trade tensions may impact global economic growth.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipate a limited impact on global oil prices in the short term, but caution that U.S. refineries will face higher costs due to their reliance on heavy crude from Canada and Mexico.
If U.S. tariffs persist, they could trigger production cuts in Canada and Mexico, which would benefit OPEC+ by facilitating its supply adjustment strategy.
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