ETECSA reports a drop in revenue from $133 to $31 per mobile line

The average income per mobile line in Cuba fell from 133 dollars in 2018 to just 31 dollars in 2024, as revealed by the executive president of the state-owned Telecommunications Company of Cuba (ETECSA), Tania Velázquez, in the official podcast From the Presidency, hosted by the ruling Miguel Díaz-Canel.

But beyond the headline, the statement has sparked a necessary debate: Did revenues really decline due to fraud and the "kidnapping of international top-ups"? Or are we facing yet another symptom of a rigid state structure, disconnected from the technological and economic reality of the island?

To illustrate his arguments, Velázquez presented a graph showing the collapse of revenues, alongside an unstoppable growth in mobile data traffic, which increased from 22 petabytes in 2018 to 855 in 2024. The executive stated that the figures corresponded to monthly revenues per line, which raises serious doubts.

With nearly eight million active mobile lines in the country, as recently acknowledged by the Minister of Communications Mayra Arevich, this would imply annual revenues exceeding 2.9 billion dollars, a staggering figure for an economy suffocated by sanctions, inflation, and a chronic shortage of foreign currency.

The most logical explanation is that Velázquez confused monthly figures with annual income. In that case, ETECSA's total revenue would be around 600 million in 2018 and approximately 240 million in 2024, much more consistent with previous estimates and the economic behavior of the telecommunications sector in Cuba.

Who is to blame?

According to the president of ETECSA, the "kidnapping" of international top-ups and fraud are responsible for the collapse. She stated that 80% of income in foreign currency depended on top-ups sent from abroad, and these have been replaced by national top-ups in local currency CUP, a phenomenon that, according to her, was "induced" and does not reflect the users' intentions.

But this reading overlooks key factors: the opacity in business management, the high prices of services, the quality deficit, and the very design of promotions and recharge policies that have pushed users to seek more affordable alternatives. Can every income not controlled by ETECSA be considered fraud? Or is it simply a popular response to the lack of options?

Paradoxically, the decline in revenue contrasts with the sustained growth of users and services. According to information published by ETECSA on its website, between 2016 and 2020, the company experienced a significant leap in infrastructure and digital adoption:

• 2016: The number of mobile lines reaches 4 million.
• 2017: Nauta Hogar and the Yellow Pages portal are launched.
• 2018: The access to the internet via mobile data begins, and 5 million lines are reached.
• 2019: 4G arrives for prepaid customers; 6 million lines are reached, achieving 100% national digitalization.
• 2020: Transfermóvil surpasses one million users.

But in the past 2024, the statistics reflected, according to the official newspaper Escambray:

• Almost 8 million Cubans access mobile telephony, of which 94% are connected to the internet.
• The average mobile data consumption per person now reaches 9.9 GB per month.
• The capabilities of the 4G network were expanded, international connectivity grew, and the number of homes with internet access increased to 283,000.
• The government operates 263 digital portals and is working on a new digital management platform called Soberanía, which promises transparency and public participation.

Everything this contradicts the idea of an "asphyxiated" infrastructure and rather points to a disconnection between the pricing policy, the business management model, and the real technological needs of the country.

As ETECSA is a monopoly, management failures, tariff discrepancies, and lack of transparency in accounting directly impact revenues without an institutional counterbalance to enforce corrections.

The official narrative points outward: at fraud, at the embargo, at induced mechanisms. But the data published by the company and the government tell a different story. One in which Cubans are connecting more, seeking alternative solutions, pressuring from the ground up for a digital transformation, and they do so despite the obstacles, not because of them.

The drop in ETECSA's revenues does not reflect a lack of demand, but rather a crisis of confidence in its model. Because in a country where almost everyone is connected, what doesn’t add up, besides the graph, is the narrative.