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The United States could face a severe economic blow if the decline in international tourism continues, with estimated losses of $23 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) and up to 230,000 jobs at risk, according to a study led by economist Jennifer Thorvaldson from the firm Implan.
The projected 10% decrease in foreign visitor arrivals this year, based on the drop in air travel in March, is attributed to a combination of factors: trade disputes, tariffs, increased immigration controls, and a negative perception of U.S. policies, particularly among Canadian tourists.
Key sectors such as restaurants, accommodation, and entertainment would be the most affected, with job losses exceeding 120,000 positions. Specifically, more than 50,000 jobs could vanish in restaurants, nearly 45,000 in hotels, and around 25,000 in entertainment.
Furthermore, retail, including gas stations, would lose about 19,500 jobs. Total losses in labor income would exceed 13 billion dollars, the economist specified to the magazine Fortune.
"The impact on employment is disproportionate due to the limited automation in the service sectors," Thorvaldson warned. Additionally, for every dollar not spent by foreign tourists, the U.S. economy loses an additional $1.19, according to his estimates.
Although April showed a partial recovery in arrivals due to the delay of Holy Week, the Oxford Economics report warns that the overall trend remains concerning.
The firm now estimates an 8.7% decline in international travel to the U.S., compared to a previous projection of 9.4%. Between May and July, flight bookings are 11% lower than those of 2024.
Cities like New York, Las Vegas, and Miami, as well as border areas with Canada, are among the most vulnerable.
According to a survey by Longwoods International, three out of five Canadians see it as less likely that they will travel to the U.S. in the next 12 months due to the current political and trade climate. In April, visits from Canadians by land dropped by 35%, and by air decreased by 20%.
Additionally, the strength of the dollar against currencies like the Japanese yen or the Brazilian real makes traveling to the U.S. less cost-effective, which may encourage tourists to seek alternative destinations.
Strengthening of immigration policies and their impact on tourism to the U.S.
The projected decline of international tourism to the United States in 2025 is set against a backdrop of tightened immigration policies and travel restrictions implemented by the administration of President Donald Trump.
Diverse European airlines, such as Lufthansa, British Airways, Air France, KLM, and Iberia, have reduced or canceled routes to U.S. cities such as New York, Miami, Los Angeles, and Chicago, redirecting their operations to destinations in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Canada, where demand is higher.
The Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has updated its travel recommendations for the United States, warning about new visa requirements, strict border surveillance, and legal consequences for immigration violations. These measures particularly affect those who have visited Cuba since 2021 and transgender individuals due to the requirements in immigration forms.
Moreover, the U.S. government has issued warnings about the practice of "birth tourism", stating that it will deny B1/B2 visas to those seeking to obtain citizenship for their children by giving birth in the country.
These policies have created a sense of risk among tourists, who fear being rejected or detained upon arrival in the country, even with an approved visa. This situation has led airlines and travel agencies to report significant cancellations.
Overall, these measures have contributed to a decrease in international tourist bookings to the United States, negatively impacting the tourism sector and the country's economy.
Tariffs, trade tensions, and social rejection undermine the tourist appeal of the U.S.
The decline in international tourism to the United States is not only due to the tightening of immigration policies and border controls but also to the wave of tariffs initiated by the Trump administration.
At the beginning of 2025, a 25% tariff was imposed on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tax on most imports from the United States. This has led to a deterioration in relations with significant trade partners such as Japan, Germany, and the European Union.
According to Newsweek, data from the hotel search engine Trivago reveals significant declines in bookings from tourists coming from Japan, Mexico, and Canada, with a double-digit decrease compared to previous years.
Germany also experienced a decline, although it was milder. The statistics align with a report from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), which projects a drop in international tourist spending in the U.S. from $181 billion in 2024 to less than $169 billion in 2025.
This decline also has a social component. In destinations like La Jolla, California, expressions of rejection towards tourists have been recorded, such as graffiti with the message "Go home, tourists," contributing to a perception of hostility that discourages travel.
This is compounded by the issuance of travel warnings by several countries, alarmed by the treatment their citizens may receive upon arriving on U.S. soil.
On the other hand, while European interest in traveling to the U.S. has declined, the demand from Americans to visit Europe has increased. According to the Financial Times, in May and June, transatlantic bookings to the United States fell by 2.4%, while bookings from the U.S. to Europe rose by 2.1%.
The CEO of Trivago, Johannes Thomas, summarized the general sentiment: “In times of uncertainty, people tend to stay closer to home.” Airlines, for their part, are also reporting weakened demand.
Ben Smith, CEO of Air France-KLM, noted that many passengers are postponing travel decisions until they have greater clarity on changes to borders and regulations.
This environment of diplomatic tensions, administrative restrictions, and perceived rejection has severely weakened the positioning of the United States as a global tourist destination.
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